市场对脱欧谈判无太多期望，二次公投已准备好
关键词：二次公投
5月7日，英国首相特蕾莎梅一直希望在不举行二次公投下，让议会批准脱欧计划，但是目前脱欧妥协方案的谈判一直未能达成。预示特蕾莎梅已经为二次脱欧公投做好情景规划，以免议会强迫进行公投。
英国首相发言人称，首相告诉内阁，与工党的协议还没有达成，公众发出了明确的信号，双方应该继续推进脱欧，今天晚些时候将与工党进行更多谈判，内阁仍然支持通过与工党谈判找到英国脱欧的解决方案，我们一直保持对谈判的信心，至关重要的是找到一条能在议会中获得稳定多数席位的前进道路，但是对于临时关税同盟的可能性，首相发言人表示不便透露会谈细节。
35.6%的首席财务官(CFO)认为，再次延长英国脱欧期限是最可能的选择，20%的受访者认为将举行另一场公投，26.7%的人认为英国将在10月带着协议脱欧。
另外，据英国政府高级消息人士表示，有可能达成脱欧协议，但是不可能在本周，英国工党消息人士称，首相特雷莎·梅提出的短期关税同盟并非新鲜事。英国BBC政治编辑认为，即使与工党达成脱欧协议，特雷莎·梅的领导地位未来依旧黯淡。
英镑兑美元在周二欧洲时段开盘大幅跳跌，此后走势持续萎靡。亚洲时段一度录得的涨幅已被回吐殆尽。小时线图也显示出上行动能进一步耗竭的形态。
分析师指出，如果英国脱欧协议正式达成，英镑或许有3-5%的快速上行空间，但是在决议未能达成之前，随着10月31日最终大限的逐步临近，英镑汇价承受的压力会越来越大。在没有突破性乐观消息的背景下，沿着趋势下行仍将是行情的主旋律。
分析师称，预计在10月底脱欧截止日期之前都不会有较大进展，这似乎是期权市场的共识，隐含波动率仍接近过去几年所见低位。目前关于何时、如何脱欧甚至是否脱欧，仍不甚明晰。汇市整体波动率仍接近五年低位，对冲基金所持英镑净仓位已下滑至负值区域
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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