原油价格飙升，经济陷入不利
关键词：原油价格飙升
美国总统特朗普发言将伊朗原油出口降为“零”之后，伊朗几次威胁要关闭霍尔木兹海峡，在在28日，伊朗表示并不谋求封锁霍尔木兹海峡，希望保持畅通，和美国的关系也希望得到异性的缓解。
当前原油价格飙升成为世界经济的又一个不利因素。布伦特原油价格今年以来上涨了约33%，接近六个月以来的最高水平。虽然需求旺盛导致的价格上涨通常反映出世界经济的强劲态势，但供应偏紧的冲击是一个负面因素。
究竟影响几何，将很大程度上取决于油价涨势持续的程度。石油出口国自然尽享企业和政府收入增长，而石油消费国将承受油价上涨的成本，继而加剧通胀并冲击需求。终将有一天，油价上涨可能给所有人带来损害。
影响会存在差异。油价上涨将损害家庭收入和支出，并可能加速通胀。作为世界上最大的石油进口国–中国易受冲击，欧洲许多国家也依赖进口能源。季节性影响也会产生影响。随着北半球夏季临近，消费者可以改变所使用的能源，并缩减使用量。世界经济放缓也将损害需求，继而将对价格构成限制。
经济学家表示，要说经济增长会受到持续冲击，那么油价将需要保持在100美元上方。鉴于原油价格以美元计价，这也取决于美元的强弱。牛津经济研究院的分析发现，布伦特油价若在2019年底前触及每桶100美元，将意味着全球经济生产总值水平到2020年末将比当前预期低0.6个百分点，平均通胀率将高出0.7个百分点。
分析师在一份报告中写道,“我们看到油价大幅上涨的风险加剧，从短期来看，供应影响很可能会被其他地区的产量增加所抵消，但市场正在趋紧，所要面对的是供应面的又一次冲击以及油价可能上探100美元。”
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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