风险资产强势，黄金地位有所下降
关键词：风险资产强势
1月21日，美元自上周五走高之后在关口附近徘徊，美元暂不具备下跌条件。另外中国股市和美国股市都出现了一定的上涨趋势，市场风险偏好持续升温，黄金暂时没有较好的表现。但投资者仍需关注美元和风险资产的表现，这是黄金的走势关键。
随着美国减税刺激对经济提振逐渐消退，中美贸易关税负面影响逐渐显现，美国经济高速增长的动力不足，增速趋于放缓。美国12月ISM制造业指数录得54.1，创2008年10月份以来最大降幅。其中新订单创近五年来最大跌幅，产出指数创2012年年初以来的最大降幅。
另外，美国新一任国会在1月3日上任，目前美国政府部分部门仍处于关门状态，停摆时间创历史记录，可见民主党与共和党之争十分激烈，也将在一定程度拖累美国经济。
但考虑到欧元区经济持续疲软，英国脱欧、意大利和法国民粹主义抬头、全球贸易形势紧张均令经济前景蒙阴。德拉吉表示，欧元区经济弱于预期，仍需大量货币宽松。欧洲央行12月会议已经将首次加息时间推迟至2019年年末。
在美国经济增长将放缓的背景下，美元指数大概率走弱。但考虑到欧元区经济疲软未见改善，美元不具备深跌的条件，预计上半年美元小幅走软。
另外美国国债收益率上升以及投资者对风险资产的兴趣增强。此举背后的催化剂或是两大经济体或缓解一直紧张的贸易关系，这将有利于经济企稳。
1月15日，英国政府脱欧协议被议会以432-202票大比例否决，欧盟据称开始准备无协议脱欧场景,民调显示无协议脱欧概率提升。若真的无协议脱欧，意味着欧盟与英国贸易关税的明显抬升，爱尔兰边境的不稳定性，英国公民生活方式的巨大冲击，甚至是混乱，进而带动英国经济增长的停滞甚至倒退，英镑的暴跌。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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