美国政府关门四周，美元面临多个困境
关键词：政府关门四周
全球经济市场持续下滑的大环境下，美元至指数在关口徘徊。欧洲央行行长释放鸽派信号支撑美元，但2019年暂停加息以及美国经济增长放缓的环境仍施压美元。美国政府关门已经四周了，中美贸易谈判也受到高度关注。
欧洲央行行长德拉基本周表示，欧元区经济并非正在走向衰退，但仍需要欧洲央行予以支持，因经济放缓的持续时间可能较预期更久。他重申欧洲央行的立场，即欧元区仍需要欧洲央行通过其负政策利率及持有大量债券来提供“大规模”刺激。他的这番谈话或许是下周调整政策步伐的先声。
继主席鲍威尔的鸽派评论之后，本周多位发表谈话的美联储官员大多认为美联储应暂停进一步加息，直至厘清各种风险对美国经济的阻碍程度，包括副主席克拉里达、堪萨斯城联储主席乔治及达拉斯联储主席卡普兰等。美联储鸽派基调的升温进一步提升了2019年放缓甚至暂停加息的预期，导致美元上行承压。
此外分析师认为当前整体资本流仍利空美元，该行外汇资本研究讨论表示，过去三周现金账户净流出美元，此前在相当长一段时间内为净买入。在美元资本流出现转变期间，恰好为2018年12月中旬美元下滑，且美联储发出更现鸽派信号期间，此外美国政府关门将持续拖累投资者对美元的偏好，至少在短期内如此。
美国政府关门对经济负面影响越来越不乐观，媒体报道称，一名不具名的白宫官员表示，他们原先预期，政府每关门一周，美国经济就会衰退0.05%，但现在飙升一倍，成了一周衰退0.1%。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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