美元会否遭“小非农”泼冷水？
关键词：美元走强
近期来美元一路上扬，截止10月3日一度攀升至95.75，虽后有所下落。但美元已经连续5个交易日以阳线收涨，表示美元多头仍然占据着主导地位。本周的小非农数据重磅来袭，美元会否遭受其泼冷水？
一方面因近期市场避险情绪普遍蔓延，市场对全球贸易局势的担忧依旧；另一方面因主要非美货币如欧元和英镑遭遇的持续抛售，英国脱欧相关的不确定性萦绕，意大利财政政策引发担忧。此外，周二（10月2日）美联储（FED）主席鲍威尔表示，“美国经济前景相当乐观”，他感觉经济即将进入超低失业率和通胀温和的“历史罕见”时代，这也为美元带来提振。据CME“美联储观察”显示，美联储今年12月升息25个基点至2.25%-2.5%区间的概率为75.4%。
过去的6个月以来，美元一路走强，主要受益于美国经济的强劲增长，美国利率上升，以及对全球贸易战的担忧。美联储上周宣布升息并表示计划在2019年底前再升息4次，并在2020年再次升息，理由是经济稳步增长和就业市场强劲。
10月2日美元再度走高，延续其积极态势。然而之后有所回落，接下来可能会维持相对区间的波动，目前没有任何真正的催化剂出现。美元指数继续扩大涨幅，接下来或打开进一步上行空间，进一步走强则看向96.00和96.20等潜在阻力位。而若美元指数短线冲高回落重回95.50下方，则关注进一步回调风险，更下方可看95.30以及95.10等水平。
本交易日接下来重点关注美国9月ADP就业人口变动，该数据有“小非农”之称，对美元走势料产生至关重要的影响，并将影响市场对本周稍晚将公布的美国非农就业数据的预期。如果美国ADP就业数据向好，则将令美元多头受到进一步鼓舞，届时美元指数将继续上扬；而如果数据不及预期，则美元多头将遭泼“冷水”，届时美元指数可能反转下跌。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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