非农屡创新高，黄金却反弹？
超级非农之夜！作为传统的市场大戏，美国劳工部(DOL)周五(7月7日)公布的数据显示，美国6月非农就业人数增加22.2万人，创四个月高位，不过6月失业率却升至4.4%，脱离早前触及的16年低位。
分析人士指出，尽管就业人口表现靓丽，但是失业率回升，且薪资增速依然疲软，再度令投资者担忧疲软的通胀，进而打压美元走势。薪资增速依然“我行我素”：美国6月平均每小时工资月率增长0.2%，预期增长0.3%，前值修正增长0.1%；美国6月平均每小时工资年率上升2.5%，预期增长2.6%，前值修正为上升2.4%。
数据公布之后，美元指数短线巨震，拉升10多点至96.14，随后大幅下挫40点，最低触及95.75，现货黄金短线下跌5美元之后，一度反弹逾10美元，最高升至1228.30美元/盎司，现货白银短线巨震后，一度拉升逼近16美元/盎司…
分析师称，令人失望的美国薪资增速是关键所在，这无法帮助美联储说服市场相信通胀下行是暂时的。尽管今天就业人数好于预期，但最大的负面因素为薪资增速再一次令市场失望。
数据出炉后，根据联邦基金利率期货显示，市场交易员们依旧预计美联储将会在今年年底前加息25个基点至1.25%-1.50%，但概率从之前的60.8%略微下降至59.4%。
分析师说道，美元没有对正面的经济数据意外做出反应，但继续因负面的消息而显著走弱。只要这样情况持续，则每次数据公布后，风险都偏于下行。
无论如何，如果整体数据与预期相符，市场焦点将转向工资增幅，但薪资需要意外大幅增长才能支撑美元反弹。如果整体数据令人失望，美元反弹就没有机会了。
有数据显示，COMEX最活跃8月黄金期货合约在北京时间20:30-35六分钟成交量为24215手，交易合约总价值近30亿美元。
其还指出，尽管失业率升至4.4%，但更多工人在求职的情况也表明民众对劳动力市场有信心。预计企业将逐渐提升薪资以吸引并留住员工。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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