欧银纪要：委员各说各理，QE未来路径或有争议
欧洲央行周四(1月12日)公布的12月货币政策会议纪要显示，在12月7-8日的政策会议上，向管理委员会呈交了两个“大致相当的”选项，分别是把量化宽松(QE)延长6个月、每月买资产800亿欧元，以及延长9个月、每个月600亿欧元。
第二个方案获得了较为广泛的支持，部分成员起初青睐第一个选项，部分成员对两个方案都不能支。
有人提出，把资产购买延长到提议的2017年12月之后，能够更长时间地保护欧元区复苏免受可能的不利影响；有人则提出支持较短一些的资产购买时间，即限制在6个月、每个月600亿欧元。
同时，在纪要中，欧洲央行也认为，考虑到法律及名誉问题，改变债券发行或发行上限并不合适。
纪要显示，欧洲央行上月的决议反映出欧元区经济表现信心增强，欧洲央行月度购债计划可能会扩大，且如有必要会升至800亿欧元/月。
纪要还显示，欧洲央行认为，潜在的价格压力有限，未能明确的显示令人信服的好转迹象；总体与核心通胀率预计在未来几个月将显著上升，主要源于能源价格的巨大基数效。
同时，考虑到反复出现的意外惊喜，欧元区就业市场的动向可能延续比预期更有活力的状况。欧洲央行认为，截至目前工资议价领域一直比较平淡，但是一旦员工意识到实际工资没有增长甚至下降，情况就可能有变，欧元区薪资议价压力可能会上升。
纪要还指出，经济增长前景则受到政治和经济的不确定性的拖累，还有实施结构性改革进展缓慢的影响，总体看来仍然存在重大不确定性。欧洲央行也考虑到了上行风险，如美国财政刺激计划的溢出效应。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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