民调显示留欧阵营领先优势缩小
英国民调公司Survation周二出炉的最新民调结果显示留欧阵营的优势缩小，英镑/美元短线急挫，较日内触及的5个半月高点1.4779高位处回落逾140点至1.4638。
Survation为IG进行的电话调查显示，“留欧”支持率为45%，“脱欧”阵营的支持率为44%。Survation周六晚些时候发布的调查则显示，“留欧”阵营以45%对42%的优势领先于“脱欧”阵营。
英镑周一大涨逾2%，为2008年以来最大单日涨幅，因有关英国退出欧盟的担忧消退。
周一的两份民调显示，“留欧”阵营在周四的公投前重新占据优势，此前一名亲欧派议员遭枪击身亡。不过第三份民调显示，“脱欧”阵营小幅领先。
英镑/美元一周隐含波动率上周五触及逾50%的纪录高位，周二回落至约38%，但仍比2008-09年金融危机时期高。
市场人士指出，目前多头仓位持续高企，留欧民调优势收窄，表明汇价回调压力渐增，一旦民意风向再度转变或邻近公投，都可能出现大量多头回吐；投资者需警惕回调风险。
“市场非常关注人气的改变，”瑞银财富管理外汇策略师Geoffrey Yu称，“英镑需要催化剂，也许最新民调就是人们等待的出脱部分多头，或者让空头回补暂停一段时间的消息。”
“但我不会做过多解读，根据英镑隐含波动率判断，英镑大幅震荡将是很正常的，肯定会在平常的交易区间外交投，”Yu称。
分析师称如果英国退欧，英镑将跌至本世纪以来的最低点。换汇及外汇支付公司RationalFX的分析师Paresh Davdra称：“如果英国留在欧盟，我预期英镑将会刺穿今年最高水平。而如果投票结果为英国退出欧盟，所有迹象表明英镑将会即刻暴跌，很有可能会跌至21世纪以来的低位。”
也有分析认为这一下跌不会持久，在一段时间后或将反弹。
资产管理公司Sun Global Investments的CEOMihir Kapadia则指出投资者将在公投前小心投资。“民调结果接近，没有人能确定最后的投票结果。不确定性导致低活跃度，因此市场可能会在周五结果公布之前保持谨慎。”
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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