通胀或掣肘美联储加息
关键词：通胀或掣肘美联储加息
黄金多头反败为胜，扩大战果，信心可能来源于即将公布的7月CPI和7月FOMC会议纪要。此前公布的7月ISM制造业指数物价分项回落，非制造业指数物价分项疲软，而上周公布的美7月进口物价跌幅创1月以来之最 ，PPI升速趋缓，美国通胀料难以为美联储提供“信心”。通胀作为目前美联储加息的几乎唯一掣肘，任何通胀上升或下降的迹象都可能对市场产生显著的影响。
北京时间周三晚间20:30美国劳工部将发布7月通胀数据，在就业市场持续改善之际，通胀成为美联储加息最为关注因素。目前预期美国7月CPI年率将增长0.2%,前值增长0.1%，核心CPI年率增长将持平在1.8%。
此外，美国原油（NYMEX原油期货）上周跌破3月触及的六年低位，刷新六年半低点至41.35美元/桶。原油领衔大宗商品暴跌，通胀预期可能受到抑制，之前通胀预期的下降已经变得相对柔和了。
7月FOMC货币政策会议声明预计近期通胀仍将保持在最近以来的较低水平，不再像6月那样认为“能源价格似乎已稳定下来”，这也意味着通胀的企稳回升或仍将短期内难觅踪迹。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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