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中国3月外汇占款优于预期

关键字:中国3月外汇

招商证券最新研究报告认为,3月金融机构新增外汇占款增长1,891.97亿元高于预期,主要因当月贸易差额由2月逆差回升为顺差,且美联储退出QE的负面影响出现阶段性缓解。

中国人民银行4月18日晚公布数据显示,3月全部金融机构新增外汇占款1,892亿元人民币,高于前月的1,282亿元。

报告认为,3月贸易顺差回升至77亿美元,减弱了市场对贸易持续逆差的担忧,稳定了预期和结汇意愿,对外汇供求的改变和外汇占款回升有影响。

对于后期走势,报告认为需考虑央行是否基本退出对汇率日常干预、对套利问题采取的态度、企业个人的持汇意愿是否有所增加、资本项目可兑换进程的推进速度及影响、汇率波幅扩大后汇率和外汇占款的新关系等几个方面变数的影响。

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