英国不升息 顾虑经济就业成长
关键字：英国经济
彭博社17日报导，英国央行(BOE)总裁卡尼(Mark Carney)在接受BBC专访时指出，导致利率维持在历史低档的因素很多(包括欧洲经济不振、政府资产负债表仍待修复)而且不会立即散去。他说，BOE将确保就业、收入、支出皆呈现可持续成长之后才会开始升息。卡尼提到，欧洲经济依旧疲弱、加上英镑汇率转强，使得英国出口业更不容易迈向复苏。因此，英国经济复苏是否能够建立在可持续的基础上、关键在于企业投资。至于房市，卡尼表示BOE官员将密切关注过热讯号。英国金融时报报导，英国人力资源发展协会(CIPD)一项针对1千名雇主所做的调查，今年员工平均基本薪资预估将年增2%、高于去年的1.6%增幅，但未来几个月内就业成长速度预估将会趋缓。过去9个月以来英国失业率自7.9%降至7.1%。Thomson Reuters调查显示，经济学家普遍预期失业率将维持在7.1%。原本将7%失业率视为引发升息导火线的BOE现已改口，表示将会检视包括平均工时、劳动参与率、薪资成长率、非志愿兼差等多项就业指标来评断升息时点。
根据Knight Frank的统计，2012年伦敦市中心将近四分之三新屋是被外国人买走；伦敦黄金地段外国买主当中，逾六分之一来自亚洲。BOE 12日将2014年经济成长率预估值自2.8%调高至3.4%，并预估去年第4季数据将自0.7%上修至0.9%。Thomson Reuters报导，ING首席汇率分析师Chris Turner表示，BOE可能会是第一个宣布升息的主要央行，ING预期英国最快将在2015年2月调高利率。BOE去年11月底突然宣布中止「贷款融资计划(Funding for Lending Scheme；FLS)」。这意味着自2014年1月1日起，银行业新增的房贷将无法获得BOE的低廉资金支持。嘉实XQ全球赢家系统报价显示，截至17日上午11时9分(GMT+8)为止，英镑兑美元升值0.35%、报1.6801，连续第5个交易日走高；开盘迄今最高点1.6822创2009年11月18日以来新高。今年迄今英镑兑美元升值幅度超过1%。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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