波士顿FED：耶伦任期内或无法达到完全就业水平
关键字：波士顿FED、美联储耶伦
Thomon Reuters报导，今年在联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)具备投票权的波士顿联储银行(FED)总裁Eric Rosengren 4日指出，今年12月开始缩减买债规模跟明年4月以前都按兵不动，对联储局(FED)资产负债表规模(注：目前达创记录的3.8兆美元)来说差异程度其实不大。他主张，FED应该等到更明确的可持续性复苏迹象浮上台面后再收伞。
Rosengren认为，在缩减买债规模之后，在失业率达到完全就业水平(注：Rosengren设定的标准为5.25%的失业率)利率应该维持在非常低的水平；届时，除非经济反弹速度比目前预期还要来得快，否则利率应该缓步调升。
根据波士顿FED官网发布的讲稿内容，Rosengren引述美国国会预算办公室(CBO)预估数据指出，包括高所得税、政府支出删减等财政紧缩措施令2013年GDP成长率短少1.5个百分点。他说，如果美国经济成长率是3.5%、而不是过去一年的2.0%，就业成长几乎可以肯定会更为强劲、失业率会更低、通膨也会更接近2%的目标值。
Rosengren指出，以2.8%的经济成长率来推算，美国得等到2018年底才能将失业率压低至5.25%。珍妮特耶伦(Janet Yellen)若顺利成为FED成立近一百年来第一位女性主席，她的任期将从2014年2月1日延续至2018年1月31日。换言之，一直到叶伦4年任期结束为止，美国可能都还没办法达到完全就业水平。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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