熊傲君：通脹回落不如理想，美聯儲重現鷹派
進入2023年後，黃金價格的表現一度發揮出色，也曾逼近2000大關，不過僅僅過去一個月後，市場的風向又發生了急速的轉變，由於連續的美國經濟數據表現強勁，尤其是非農的出色發揮下，使得美聯儲有了更大的底氣維持加息政策，再加上美國的通脹數據回落幅度並不理想，周初CPI數據仍然超過市場預期，這導致金價大幅下滑。
通脹數據依然處於高位
通脹數據在上年尾的回落一度導致美聯儲加快放緩加息的力度，因為在加息的背景下，經濟衰退的風險正在不斷升溫，這也是金價大幅反彈的主要原因。不過在近段時間的經濟數據來看，美國市場的情況還是比較樂觀，而通脹水準沒有預料當中的回踩力度，導致美聯儲的態度發生了轉變，尤其離制定的2%目標還有相當長的一段距離，所以此前的利多信號反而轉為利空。
美聯儲重新釋放鷹派態度
在一月份的利率決議中，美聯儲如期加息25個基點，但是和此前相比，美聯儲已經減慢了加息的力度，而且整體措辭也屬於中性的態度，可見在當時通脹有所回落的情況下，市場甚至認為年內有停止加息步伐的可能，不過隨著最近的數據顯示，美聯儲就重新釋放出了鷹派的態度。美聯儲的幾位官員都表示為了高通脹的風險，不得不繼續維持加息一段時間。
現階段黃金價格走勢整體較為低迷，不斷保持震盪下行的節奏為主，所以除非市場上出現了突發的事件，否則至少要等到下次的通脹數據回落或者有更加明顯的經濟衰退風險，因為這才會影響到美聯儲加息的決心，只要美聯儲態度不轉變的話，那麼短期黃金的走勢可能還是不容樂觀。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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