王垣鑫：多頭上行一波多折，晚間留意美國恐怖資料
昨天金價經過亞盤時段短暫震盪過程後，歐盤開始迅速走高並到達日內高點，也就是1834附近位置，不過後市並未能站穩價格在傍晚時段迅速回落，下方1820一線支撐效果良好，金價回踩後出現反彈但截至目前為止仍承壓于1830下方。
美聯儲主席鮑威爾在7月15日參議員聽證會上稱，FOMC將在未來數周討論美國國債和抵押貸款支持證券（MBS）的購買事宜，相比減碼QE，美聯儲在加息問題上所面臨的考驗更大。鮑威爾重申如果通脹預期上升過多，美聯儲將做出反應，不過不認為會出現廣泛的通脹壓力。
另外，美國芝加哥聯儲主席埃文斯認為，仍然需要評估需要實現的進展，至少會在幾次會議上討論減碼QE。埃文斯稱自己相信價格壓力是暫時的，如果年底失業率降至4.5%，美聯儲可能會調整政策。埃文斯認為美國將在年底看到實質性的進一步進展，他的預期和美國將在2024年加息一致。
我們從現貨黃金日線圖上可以看到，昨日金價沖高回落錄得帶上影線的K線形態，不過整體仍處於MA5均線上方，且進一步突破前一天的高位，暗示多頭走勢仍在持續過程當中。目前MACD指標雙線持續金叉，但KDJ指標三線走高有調整需求，後市繼續留意MA5均線的支撐效果。
金價在突破1815一線位置化解頂背離調整過程後未能進一步延續上漲趨勢，目前1830成為金價上方主要的滯高位置。MACD指標雙線有拐頭粘合的跡象，日內需要留意1820-1830區間及後市的突破方向，這或將成為後市趨勢方向的重要參考依據。晚間美國將公佈零售銷售資料，屆時或將引發行情大幅波動，需做好風控保護。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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