王垣鑫：CPI月率增幅創紀錄，現貨黃金劇烈震盪
本周金價大部分時間維持1880-1900區間震盪波動幅度較小，整體基本保持在1890一線上下波動，多空雙方在這個位置不斷爭奪。昨日金價在亞盤開盤後持續走低，在美盤時段價格到達日內最低位1870一線，隨後價格迅速反彈短時間內直接飆升21美元，截止目前為止反彈走勢仍在持續，價格再度測試1900整數關口。
歐洲下半年經濟活動或將加速
歐洲央行行長拉加德預計下半年經濟活動將加速，但供應瓶頸可能在短期內造成不利影響；下半年通脹預期將上升，隨著暫時性因素逐漸消失，通脹率將隨之下降，總體通脹率低於預期水準。市場利率上升部分反映了更好的經濟，但持續上升可能導致過早的緊縮，歐洲央行將對匯率進行監控。拉加德稱顯著加快購債步伐的決定是一致通過的，且在適當的時候會有關於退出緊急抗疫購債計畫的討論，不過現在還為時過早。
美國5月CPI數據增幅大超預期
隨著經濟增強，預計通脹持續走高的風險將變得更加穩固。季調後CPI月率錄得0.8%，為2009年以來最大增幅，年率錄得5%，為2008年8月以來最大增幅，不過年率受到基數效應的影響。隨著企業在需求激增和材料短缺、勞動力短缺等方面取得平衡，整個經濟體的價格壓力料將繼續增加。航運瓶頸、投入成本上升和工資上漲，都將給保護利潤率的企業帶來挑戰。
從日線級別上可以看到，昨日金價日內雖然出現大幅走低行情，但最終收盤時價格仍然回到1890上方，雖然MACD指標雙線持續死叉，但空頭遲遲未能向下取得突破，價格下行的空間難以打開，目前金價再度向上測試，需留意1900整數關口的反壓情況。日內金價目前再度衝擊1900關口，雖然KDJ指標三線目前走高指標有調整需求，但若後市價格能站穩1890一線位置，未來價格再度走上1900關口上方的概率或將大大增加。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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