王垣鑫：背離引發日內反彈，後市關注5日線壓力
關鍵字：走勢分析、現貨黃金
現貨黃金價格在周初時間裡，基本維持1900上方震盪，但週三出現大幅回落走勢，價格直接跌破1900、1890、1870關口。雖然昨日早間價格出現反彈，但1885一線位置壓力效果比較明顯，價格兩度上攻不能突破後選擇回落，金價直接跌破前低1870一線，將低點刷新至1860一線位置。截至到現在為止，價格仍在低位區間震盪，整體表現較為弱勢。
歐央行利率維穩
昨日，歐洲央行決定暫時按兵不動，將應對新冠疫情的緊急購債計畫維持在1.35萬億歐元不變。歐洲央行行長拉加德表示，因新冠疫情與再度實施封鎖可能導致經濟二次衰退，“幾乎無疑”會在12月就新的貨幣刺激方案達成共識。
拉加德在新聞發佈會上的這番表示，彰顯出疫情反彈使該地區經濟復蘇面臨脫軌威脅。此前歐洲央行決定暫時維持刺激措施不變。歐元區經濟復蘇勢頭減弱的速度快於預期，拉加德稱同意有必要採取行動，並且將在下次管理委員會會議上重新調整工具。
背離或帶來日內反彈機會
儘管目前現貨黃金價格走勢仍保持弱勢，但1h級別中可以看到，macd指標未能跟隨價格進行破低，出現了底背離的跡象。同時，日線kdj指標三線走低，也帶來了回檔的需求。不過，這種小級別的背離加上大級別的kdj調整，或許並不會給整個回落趨勢帶來很大的改變。因為目前小級別的下跌形態依然保存良好，所以更多的可能只會出現日內的反彈，重點仍需留意上方日線級別ma5均線的壓力。
另外，目前日線級別的均線簇已經排好順序，並且有向下發散的跡象，下方需要重點關注1850一線前低支撐，一旦跌破配合均線的空頭排列，後市下跌空間可能就會直接打開，屆時不排除價格直接回踩1800整數關口的可能。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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