王垣鑫：美聯儲會議紀要前夕，現貨黃金回落調整
關鍵字：美聯儲會議紀要、現貨黃金
本周現貨黃金表現較為強勢，金價在上周走短暫刺穿1870美元/盎司一線反彈後，空頭似乎失去所有力量。金價在週一大幅反彈40美元，週二進一步延續反彈，將價格推升至2015美元/盎司一線。日內反彈勢頭有所放緩，金價暫時跌至2000美元/盎司下方。
美聯儲或採取平均通脹目標制
前美聯儲主席珍妮特耶倫表示，美聯儲對貨幣政策框架的評估可能會在9月結束，美聯儲或將轉向平均通脹目標制與其不管通脹真實情況及過去的演變，始終將通脹目標定在2%，認為美聯儲會傾向於將通脹率目標保持在平均約2%的水準。
耶倫認為這樣的決定將使市場對美聯儲長期保持低利率抱有信心，並刺激經濟活動和推高通脹。在平均通貨膨脹目標制下，美聯儲會認為讓通脹率略超過2%水準是件好事。將通脹目標從2％降低到一個較低的數字將是極不明智且非常危險的，並且由於名義利率會隨通脹而下降，因此會削弱貨幣政策的力量。
會議紀要前夕金價徘徊2000大關
上周現貨黃金價格雖一度出現較大幅度回檔，但從周線級別上看，價格最終收盤價仍位於ma5均線上方，暗示ma5均線仍有支撐效果。本周金價繼續受支撐上行，加上macd指標雙線仍在金叉過程當中，即使價格出現回落，短時間內仍需留意1960-1970區間的支撐效果。
周內金價反彈至黃金分割線61.8%壓力位附近受阻，1990-2000區間成為重要多空分水嶺。目前日線級別macd指標雖雙線仍在死叉過程當中，但快線有所拐頭，一旦價格向上突破或將立刻出現金叉信號。所以日線能否成功突破1990-2000區域，或成為後市方向判斷的重要依據。另外，由於晚間將公佈美聯儲會議紀要，若無突發事件，日間金價出現大幅度波動的概率較小，所以欲進行破位追時，建議需謹慎操作。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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