王垣鑫：利空因素雙管齊下 黃金失守關鍵1600
現貨黃金在苦苦掙扎一周時間之後，受到了美元指數反彈，及全球黃金最大買家俄羅斯央行宣佈4月1日起不再買入黃金消息的影響，今日淩晨金價持續下跌並失守1600整數關口位置，雖然在今日亞盤開盤後價格回落過程已經暫時結束，並出現持續的反彈，但截止至歐盤前為止，仍未能重新站上1590一線位置上方，短時間內或將面臨調整。
高盛下調美國二季度經濟預估
昨日高盛表示美國第二季經濟下滑幅度將遠高於先前預估，其次因民間證據和歐美國家的新冠病毒疫情導致初請失業金人數飆升，失業率也將面臨攀升。此前高盛預測第二季美國實質國內生產總值環比年率將下降24%，最新預測為下降34%。此外該行首席經濟學家哈哲思稱，將美國第一季經濟目標從此前預計的下降6%下調至下降9%。
另一方面，此前高盛預計到今年年中失業率將升至9%，而最新預期值為15%。因失業數據顯示產出和勞動力市場的崩潰幅度甚至比此前預期的還要大，這將引發對未來收入和支出造成更嚴重的第二輪影響的恐懼。
金價失守千六後市何去何從
現貨黃金價格自前段時間低點反彈以來，最大反彈幅度達到了194美元，1700上方開始的回落幅度也已經收復過半，但在短時間內美元有所反彈，加之黃金持倉下降的影響，令金價失去支撐力度。
技術面上日線級別ma5均線亦開始拐頭向下形成壓力，在目前周線級別頂背離仍未完全調整完畢的情況底下，金價再度失去基本面的支持，或將令金價後市短時間內的進一步反彈帶來重重阻礙，現階段金價需重點關注下方1540-1560支撐區間，若是支撐有效價格仍有望在下一輪行情當中繼續嘗試收復到1700上方的這部分跌幅；如若支撐區間失效，後市將延續周線調整過程並大概率回到1500下方位置，屆時建議多頭頭寸需做好思路轉換的準備。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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