王垣鑫：金價遭遇無情震盪 行情仍在等待契機
近幾周金價一直維持震盪格局，據大田環球貴金屬現貨黃金盤面報價顯示，自11月份開端金價大幅下跌以來，剩餘時間至目前金價低點維持在1445.6美元/盎司一線位置，高點被壓制於1483.9美元/盎司位置，周線連續四周收出十字星形態k線，實體收線幅度均在6美元以內。
靚麗非農數據打壓金價
上周時間內金價多頭曾發起反攻，價格最高重新站上1480美元/盎司一線上方，並且連續兩天高位震盪調整，但週五晚間公佈美國非農數據大幅回暖，就業人口大幅增加26.6萬位列兩年內就業人口數據前三甲，且失業率從3.6%小幅下滑至3.5%。
數據的改善似乎證實了美聯儲10月認為目前不需要進一步降息的決定，目前美聯儲正密切關注美國整體經濟情況的變化以制定後續的利率方針，在此情況底下就業市場的大幅走好令市場對美聯儲繼續降息的預期降溫繼而打壓金價，受此影響金價大幅下挫20美元直接收回周內所有反彈幅度。
黃金白銀ETF持有量下降
非農夜現貨黃金價格大幅下挫後，本周金價有企穩1460美元/盎司一線跡象，但根據最新的持倉數據顯示，黃金和白銀支持的交易所交易基金上周均錄得淨流出，其中白銀ETF持有量連續第四周下降，是一年來最長連降。
另外本周美聯儲將公佈12月利率決議，雖然市場對於美聯儲在本次利率決議當中繼續降息過程的預期並不強烈，但在利率決議結果公佈之前，金價料將維持震盪格局，金價在本該回落調整的時間內選擇橫盤，而上漲的時機又仍未到來，從歷史行情來看，金價要想延續周線級別上漲走勢，似乎要等到耶誕節前後甚至待明年第一季度實物金需求旺季提振才有較大機會實現。
因此建議先觀察本周美聯儲利率決議公佈後金價是否有打破目前周線震盪區間即提前啟動行情的跡象後，再決定是否應調整相應操作思路，否則仍需耐心等待耶誕節前後時間或明年第一季度實物金需求旺季的行情啟動契機。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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