王垣鑫：現貨黃金橫掃空頭警惕周線回調
剛剛過去的一周，現貨黃金表現非常樂觀，一度刷新2013年9月份以來高點至1411.75美元/盎司，收報1399.14美元/盎司，周線漲幅為4.31%，為2016年4月底以來最大單周漲幅，而且是連續五周上漲，雖然收盤前價格出現小幅回落，但回落幅度已於本周開盤後迅速收回，目前於前高區間附近高位震盪。
6月聯邦基金利率維穩
6月20日淩晨美聯儲公佈聯邦基金利率，如市場所料目標區間維持在2.25%-2.5%不變。然而，美聯儲在會後的聲明中取消了一直沿用的“耐心”措辭，表態要“採取適當措施來維持經濟的擴張”，但令人意外的是出現了自鮑威爾上臺後首次持不同意見者，聖路易斯聯儲主席布拉德反對按兵不動，主張降息25個基點。
另一方面根據公佈的最新美聯儲點陣圖顯示，17名美聯儲官員現在認為年底之前降息50個基點是合適的，市場已經反映了美聯儲7月政策會議降息25個基點以上的預期，這意味著一次性降息50個基點的情況並非不可能發生，美元指數在利率決議後震盪走弱並刷新低點至97.08附近。
現貨黃金多頭趁機爆發
趁著美元指數回落，美國伊朗局勢緊張燃起市場避險情緒，以及美聯儲年內降息概率大增的機會，現貨黃金價格在從1275美元盎司一線大幅上漲至1348美元盎司一線後，再度向上狂掃70美元盎司的漲幅，一舉擊破近幾年主要滯高點1375美元盎司，並站上1400美元盎司整數關口上方。
但需要留意的是目前黃金周線級別ma5支撐尚在1358美元盎司一線，並且kdj指標j線已經上穿100，表示周線級別處於超買狀態當中，當市場開始消化近期利多因素的時候，需要警惕金價往周線ma5回落進行回踩，待後市金價於5周線附近踩穩時，後市有望在下一波漲勢進一步往1500美元盎司關口衝擊。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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