王垣鑫：美指沖高回落黃金趁機反擊
本周現貨黃金的走勢可以用絕地反擊來形容，在前半周美聯儲降息預期被打壓，美元指數一路高歌猛進打壓金價，現貨黃金價格欲進一步試探前低1266美元/盎司一線支撐效果的情況下，金價卻突然向上發力突破重重壓制，完成一波探低回升走勢回到了1280美元/盎司一線上方，當然這次的反彈也是受到了美元指數沖高回落的影響，總體而言，據大田環球貴金屬現貨黃金盤面報價顯示，本周金價週六淩晨3點收盤於1284.3美元/盎司一線。
降息預期被打壓美元狂歡
本周多位美聯儲官員發表了講話，包括主席鮑威爾和副主席克拉裏達，整體措辭並不鴿派，美聯儲週四淩晨公佈的4月會議紀要顯示，美聯儲官員在上次政策會議上一致認為，目前在制定貨幣政策時保持耐心的做法可能在一段時間內保持不變，表明決策者認為升息或降息的必要性並不大，進一步打壓降息預期，前半周時間美元指數一路高歌猛進衝破前高壓力。
經濟數據走壞美指樂極生悲
但美元指數的高歌猛進在週四出現了轉折，美國商務部週四報告顯示4月新屋銷售環比下降6.9%，經季節調整後年率為67.3萬戶，在連續三個月上漲後下滑；數據公司Markit報告顯示，美國製造業採購經理人PMI指數從4月的52.6降至50.6，為2009年9月以來最低，週五公佈的報告顯示4月份資本品和耐用品訂單減少2.1%，比市場預期的更差。受此影響，美元指數週四出現沖高回落走勢，在會議紀要鞏固堅守步伐為美指帶來一波沖高後，之後多個數據走壞直接讓美指收回其所帶來的所有漲幅。
黃金轉勢仍需經歷考驗
現貨黃金雖然目前從低位反彈，暫時告別了再度測試前低的風險，但現階段黃金的階段性回落除了受美元指數的打壓之外，其本身周線級別方面亦是處於ma5均線的壓制之下，本周低位反彈仍未能確認金價已經站穩ma5之上，因此下周料走勢仍會在短時間內有所反復，以確認趨勢的轉換是否成功，可關注日線級別ma5支撐的有效性。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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