林幽沃：人民幣迎來暴漲
關鍵字：人民幣，美元
在本周時間上美元兌人民幣疑似衝擊7.00大關到完全扭轉局勢回到6.75附近一線，人民幣在本周實現大反轉的行情。在週五盤中，無論在岸或離岸人民幣兌美元連續漲破6.78、6.77、6.76、6.75四道關口，創去年7月來新高。臨近收盤時，在岸人民幣兌美元一度觸及6.74關口，日內漲近500點。
人民幣暴漲的原因：
1，資金回籠
在中國傳統節日最重要的春節即將到來，投資海外的資金開始回流至國內，中國的投資者們也開始結算在2018年的受益。並且在這一基礎上，回流的資金也可以為新的一年投資藍圖計畫作準備。
2，美元預期受益降低
在2019年美聯儲加息次數預期只有2次的情況下，美元在市場眼中吸引力下降，加上美股開始展現疲態的表現，導致美國市場投資環境開始變差。美元的投機價值開始下降，導致人民幣的漲幅加大。
3，中美貿易關係改善
中美雙方在北京舉行經貿問題副部級磋商。雙方積極落實兩國元首重要共識，就共同關注的貿易問題和結構性問題進行了廣泛、深入、細緻的交流，增進了相互理解，為解決彼此關切問題奠定了基礎。雙方同意繼續保持密切聯繫。
人民幣後續走勢如何？
隨著美聯儲整體官員開始認為美國基準利率已經到達中性利率水準的底部，美聯儲加息的步伐將會降慢，這對人民幣來說無疑減輕很大的壓力。未來美元兌人民幣的走勢更加看重的是中國經濟轉型以及中美貿易的進展。在2019年的走勢依然有望維持在6.00-7.00的區間運行，這也是相對穩定的走勢。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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