林幽沃：現貨黃金上演聖誕狂歡
關鍵字：現貨黃金
在全球進入聖誕假期的時間內，市場在休息一天後進入狂歡，現貨黃金在2018年再度上演上一年聖誕周行情企圖爆發。目前現貨黃金再衝擊1280美元/盎司關口快速回落，不過後市都能全部收復跌勢。現貨黃金在聖誕周不斷測試多頭的信心，而現貨黃金的的多頭們正是告訴市場信心滿滿。
去年同期走勢對比
在2018年末的走勢與2017年末的走勢對比上，進入12月以來的走勢幾乎完全一樣，同樣的12月利率決議前回踩，在公佈完畢後盤整一段時間立即上漲。雖然聖誕周的漲幅目前不及去年，但是需要注意到的是去年有特朗普稅改政策的影響令現貨黃金較大漲幅，而今年也有可能在聖誕周內站上1280關口。
2019年初預期
由於美聯儲在12月新聞發佈會上發表鴿派言論，預期美國在未來經濟數據有可能將會下調的影響，降低市場對美聯儲未來一年的加息預期。加之，美聯儲點陣圖也表明當前官員的想法，2019年僅僅只加息兩次的預期令美元指數無力再度發力上攻。由美元計價的現貨黃金有望擺脫近年來受加息利好的強勢美元影響，再次衝擊近年高點1375。
未來展望
在過去三年裏美聯儲開展了加息週期，目前已經到達中性利率的初步目標，即美聯儲有可能隨時根據經濟狀況而停止加息。在2019年裏經濟數據將會預示著美聯儲剩下的加息次數，目前市場預期2020年將會完全結束加息週期。而另一方面隨著美股多頭乏力，預示著頂部的到來，美股的下跌將會成為現貨黃金最好的助力。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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