林幽沃：美元生死夜！延續輝煌or到此為止？
關鍵字：美聯儲，美元
在2018年9月27日淩晨美聯儲9月利率決議終於到來，自由於美聯儲在6月利率決議後發布的申明提高年內加息4次的預期，美元強勁的走勢在過去數月中一直壓制著現貨黃金以及非美貨幣。今夜的年內第三次加息，美元能否實現利多兌現的狀況，從而解放現貨黃金以及非美貨幣出現大反轉行情？
在本月初，對於貨幣政策立場偏鴿派的美聯儲理事、票委佈雷納德表示，由於特朗普政府的減稅政策對經濟起到巨大的刺激作用，未來一年或兩年內美聯儲應該堅持逐步加息路徑，可能加息至超越中性利率水準。
那麼，美聯儲目前大部分官員認為的中性利率水準是多少呢？
在6月美聯儲公佈的點陣圖顯示，美聯儲對長期自然利率的中位數預期是2.9%。根據佈雷納德的說法，美聯儲有可能加息超過3%，因為中性利率的預期區間是2.5%-3.5%。目前美國聯邦基金利率為1.75%-2%，這代表至少還會加息四次。
加之，美聯儲主席包威爾在6月新聞發佈會中提及，在2019年每次的美聯儲利率決議都將會舉行新聞發佈會，都被市場認為有可能為加息提速的表現。
儘管目前美聯儲官員對未來加息的看法都偏向於樂觀，並且都高於市場的預期。不過，美元指數目前的走勢並不算強勢，更多地還是要看在今夜以及12月公佈的利率決議結果來推測未來1-2年的加息步伐。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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