林幽沃：黃金一枝獨秀！牛市要來了嗎？
關鍵字：現貨黃金，美元指數
現貨黃金在上周表現出色，週五晚間受美聯儲主席鮑威爾講話影響出現暴漲行情，現貨黃金多頭一舉攻下1200大關並且直至收市前站穩在上方，扭轉前期疲弱的走勢。而另一方面，由於當晚鮑威爾的講話並沒有降低美聯儲在9月加息的概率，導致美元只出現小幅度的回撤，現貨黃金在出現暴漲行情後在本周能否守住1200大關成為關注重點。
在本次黃金沖上1200大關上方，大田環球貴金屬林幽沃認為主要的看點其實是美元指數跌幅不大。在沒有國際大事件發生的時候，美元指數與現貨黃金往往呈相反走勢。而在週五美聯儲主席鮑威爾講話的影響中，現貨黃金在暴漲的時候，美元指數僅僅只是小幅回踩前方支撐，並無跌破關鍵位置。目前苦苦支撐美元指數的是2018年內還有兩次加息的預期，這也是造成非美貨幣以及商品類無法反攻的壓制。
雖然現貨黃金受到美聯儲高概率加息的壓制，但從行情上看，在上周五的暴漲後收線為技術面創下良好的延續漲勢的基礎，而前提下是在本周初不能出現暴跌吞沒的行情。目前，周初的調整需求較大，現貨黃金能否死守1200大關變成最終的多空攻防戰。如能守住，現貨黃金則有望無視美元的強勢進入多頭行情，否則又即將進入萬劫不復的空頭行情。
總結：
目前美元指數仍然占著主導地位，在高概率加息的情況下現貨黃金抬頭上行機會較小，但對於現貨黃金多頭來說是如何把握美元指數回落的時候儘量突破關鍵壓力，創造更多空間。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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