林幽沃：特朗普炮轟歐盟控制匯率
關鍵字：匯率，特朗普，美聯儲
近期特朗普再度就匯率問題開炮，在此前歐美達成貿易協議後，特朗普對近期美元的升值感到失望，選擇向第二大流通貨幣歐元開炮，指責歐盟控制匯率。同時矛頭也指向美聯儲主席鮑威爾，特朗普認為美聯儲目前加息的動作是刺激經濟復蘇道路上的阻礙物，在公開場合不止一次表明不希望美聯儲進行加息。
市場在特朗普這番言論下作出相對的反應，美元指數應聲回落，非美貨幣以及商品在近期的下跌中獲得一線生機。
推動美元的主要原因在於美聯儲，目前美聯儲離9月利率決議的舉行不到一個月的時間，市場預期美聯儲在9月利率決議上加息的可能性較大，因美聯儲在近期兩次利率決議上的申明十足鷹派。加之，在美國經濟快速復蘇的情況，美聯儲擔憂會經濟會產生過熱的跡象，所以市場預期9月加息概率較大，有可能會進一步將美元匯率推高。
不過，特朗普在公開場合評判美聯儲加息可能只是一出戲。從目前的狀況來看，美聯儲加息不僅配合特朗普“新稅改”政策大幅吸引資金回流至美國，利差吸引國際資本流入，“新稅改”吸引實體企業重心回到美國。在這一場戲的背後，新興市場之一的土耳其已經處於絕對劣勢之中，面臨著的是本土貨幣大幅貶值造成進口通脹問題。
總而言之，目前美聯儲加息的手段只是處於抑制經濟過熱的問題，而並非真正的影響到實體經濟的增長，美國在近兩年來經歷快速復蘇的增長期後，美聯儲有可能會想法令實體經濟進入穩定器，而並非繼續快速擴張，避免造成不可挽救的危機。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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