林幽沃：央媽再度降准拯救流動性
在進入2018年後，滬指在1月底到達高位3587.03點後失去動力在高位徘徊，近期由於美聯儲的加息加速預期和歐銀確認退出QE的影響，全球預期將正式踏進資金面收緊的局面，A股受到影響跌破3000點大關，最低下行至2837.14點。截止發稿前，滬指最大跌幅達749.89點，接近21%的跌幅。
定向降准
在今年央媽曾兩次定向降准。1月18日主要對在去年針對小微企業、貧困群眾和學生的貸款增量占比達到1.5%的商業銀行的降准50個基點，釋放臨時流動性約2萬億元。並於1月25日實施普惠金融定向降准，釋放流動性約4500億元。如果上述比例超過10%，將可以額外再降准100個點。
定向降准是針對不同金融機構的債務問題進行幫助，今年一季度，中國境內公募債券的違約只數升至2017年二季度以來新高，信用風險加速暴露——民營企業、上市公司頻現兌付危機、連環違約，民企債被認為是違約風險最高的領域。
A股
未來股市可能還將面臨一定的壓力，由於資金面的緊縮以及貿易問題上的影響，股市資金在不斷流出向其他管道進發。但在拋壓巨大的情況下，前期優質白馬股有可能會跌出適合的價位介入，可以關注。
目前央媽有可能向大型金融機構實施定向降准，釋放大量資金，利用政策工具幫助中小型企業渡過債務問題的危機，從而緩解金融壓力。A股有望從拋壓中得到援助，但新興市場依然會受到歐美央行的緊縮貨幣政策影響，進入盤整期。
對於當前國內環境，大田環球貴金屬林幽沃認為，政策偏向幫助企業渡過債務問題的危機，暫無鼓勵投資的跡象。而A股短期內有望超跌反彈，但上漲的時機暫未到。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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