林幽沃：OPEC會議前瞻，原油價格走向何方？
在本周OPEC會議即將舉行，美油價格從2015年每桶28美元附近的回升至2018年接近每桶72美元的高位。原油價格的上漲歸功於OPEC在2016年底與俄羅斯史無前例的合作進行大幅度的減產拯救油價，在經歷2017年原油價格的全面上漲超越目標價格後，OPEC與俄羅斯將會採取哪些新一輪的動作？
一、增產
此前各國油長的講話中提及到在價格已經回到目標水準後可能考慮恢復增長的聲明，如果OPEC內部成員國都同意，則有可能每日增加50萬桶-80萬桶的供應量。而非OPEC成員國俄羅斯的提議則較為激進，有意將2016年所達成的減產協議中全部恢復，則每日增加180萬桶供應量。但由於部分國家在未來較難回歸此前產量，可以確定的是此次增產的供應量依然不會達到2年前的幅度。
二、“超級OPEC”
世界除美國外，OPEC成員國及非OPEC成員在過去兩年穩定全球石油價格的任務上取得成功，有可能在2017年限產的合作基礎上進一步融合成組織。那麼，在14個OPEC成員國以及10個以俄羅斯為首的非OPEC產油國所組成的龐大組織，其總產量達到全球石油供給的55%，意味著佔據更多的市場份額則擁有更強大的定價權。
在OPEC有可能達成增產的預期下，以美油價格來看呈現下跌的走勢，當前在暫時維持在每桶65美元附近運行。大田環球林幽沃認為，由於OPEC增產的幅度大概率不能將此前減產的幅度全部低消，加上各國都不願意看到油價再次出現暴跌的跡象，預期原油價格短期依然會繼續承壓下滑，但最終能維穩在每桶55美元上方。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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