林幽沃：美聯儲加息時間點解讀
近期受歐美貿易問題、G7峰會以及“金特會”的炒作熱點影響，現貨黃金反而陷入震盪走勢。現貨黃金在跌破1300後沒有加速下行，反而是受到避險情緒的影響導致止跌回升，但上方壓力依然很大，導致現貨黃金陷入震盪行情之中。
在下周將迎來美聯儲6月議息決議，在接近100%的加息概率情況下，現貨黃金能否在下周突破區間呢？
目前現貨黃金對美聯儲加息反應冷淡，原因是在於市場已經在加息步伐有充足的預期。目前美聯儲採取循序漸進的加息步伐，而且時間點也非常明確，沒有突然加息的動作，令市場有充分的時間作準備。
美聯儲在當前只會選擇有新聞發佈會的議息決議進行加息，分別是3,6,9,12月。大田環球貴金屬林幽沃認為，自2015年12月以來，只有9月份沒有進行過加息。所以，除非在6月份的新聞發佈會上，美聯儲主席鮑威爾透露出強烈在9月加息的意願，不然對現貨黃金的空頭沒有太大的幫助。而12月份雖然市場也能有充分的時間做準備，但是12月份的新聞發佈會會對未來一年的加息步伐作出預期，所以影響較大。3月份的加息在12月份已經被預期，並且出現變化概率較低，所以行情也會較少。
以上是對美聯儲為什麼每次預期加息行情不一樣的解讀。
總結：
通過上面的解讀，我們可以清楚本次6月份的加息雖然勢在必行，但是行情卻沒有太大反應的原因。而最終決定現貨黃金的走勢，是其後的新聞發佈會。如果鮑威爾表露出加快加息節奏的意願，那行情可能會在加息後出現下跌走勢。反之，則有可能回升。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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