王垣鑫：增產噩夢縈繞，原油前景堪憂
原油昨日于67.25美元/桶開盤，收于66.49美元/桶，日內最高上行至67.34美元/桶，最低下探至65.75美元/桶，受沙特和俄羅斯或將增加原油供應的消息影響，原油繼上週五大幅滑落後進一步延續回落走勢，另外美國方面產量亦見放鬆跡象，截止至上周美國能源公司新增15口活躍鑽機，目前總活躍鑽機數目達到859口，在過去的兩年裡面，美國原油產量已經急速增加逾27%到日產1073萬桶，但有消息顯示美國鑽探商仍在繼續尋找新的可開採油田，因此未來的一段時間內美國的原油出產量料將進一步增長。
大田環球貴金屬留意到，摩根士丹利首席經濟學家Chetan Ahya在週末的一份公告中寫道，油價近期的上漲速度，在投資者當中激發了有關是否給全球增長帶來下行風險的討論。另外，上周有消息人士稱，為解決潛在的供應短缺問題， OPEC的實際領頭羊沙特，以及最大石油生產國俄羅斯已經就減少限產和每日增加供應100萬桶進行了磋商，俄羅斯油長諾瓦克上週六表示，產量回到2016年10月的水準，即當前供應協議的基準水準，是減少限產的一個選項。顧問公司JBC Energy稱，考慮到下半年供應短缺約82.5萬桶/日，逐漸增產約100萬桶/日可能很大程度上限制庫存下降。
大田環球貴金屬分析師王垣鑫認為，自去年6月下旬開始原油保持良好上漲態勢，主要得益於opec及俄羅斯的減產行動，但在減產氛圍濃厚的情況底下，美國卻一直增產猶如漆黑當中的螢火蟲一樣鮮明和出眾，若未來連opec及俄羅斯都跟隨步伐進行增產的話，原油近一年時間保持的上行態勢恐將改變，目前僅是消息流出，在未來增產落地的時候，料才將是原油正式開始回落的時間。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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