王垣鑫：加息成中美貿易局勢後焦點
隨著上周中美發表聯合聲明，中美貿易局勢開始緩和，市場的焦點開始轉向6月14號的美聯儲利率決議，大田環球貴金屬留意到，對於本次6月份美聯儲是否繼續上調利率，市場對其加息的預期已經達到了97%以上，自美國正式進入加息週期以來，上調利率基本已經可以看做是每個大加息週期的必備環節，市場也對此做好了充分的心理準備，在更多時候市場的焦點甚至轉向了尋找美聯儲是否有加速上調利率的依據。
消息方面，美國費城聯儲主席哈克週一稱，通脹上升意味著美聯儲今年應再升息兩次、甚或三次，最快可能下個月行動。另外大田環球貴金屬留意到美聯儲主席鮑威爾也將於本週五參加瑞典央行第350屆會議會議上關於“金融穩定和央行透明度”的小組討論，屆時可關注其是否有透露關於今年加息進程的話語。
大田環球貴金屬提醒，最近債券收益率的上升，加上積極的經濟資料和不斷上升的通貨膨脹，增加了人們對美聯儲將提高利率和收緊貨幣政策的預期，也順便對黃金造成了打壓，加上對美聯儲將於6月再次加息的預期，無疑將進一步增加近期金價的下行壓力，因為對利率上升的預期往往會使美元對尋求收益的投資者更具吸引力，從而提振美元及債券收益率，使像黃金這樣的非收益資產變得不那麼有吸引力。
但是大田環球貴金屬留意到也有分析認為，最近提振美元的利差不太可能持續支撐美元，美聯儲加息預期上升空間有限。期貨市場目前認為該央行2018年還將進一步加息兩次，每次加息25個基點。
大田環球貴金屬分析師王垣鑫認為，美聯儲6月份的加息已為大概率事件，市場對其已經做好了充足的心理準備，難免會出現買預期賣事實的情況，加之目前金價自高點已經持續下跌了超過80美元的空間，個人認為若在公佈利率決議之前，金價不能有效反彈，則公佈加息後金價的下跌空間或相對有限。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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