林幽沃：美債收益率上升造成的影響
在近數月以來，美國十年期國債收益率突破3%，創2014年1月以來新高。美債突破3%並不是常見的事情，自2011年以來，3%收益率的關口分別在2013年和2014年被短暫觸碰過。
美國國債收益率，一直被全球市場作為標的，因為美國國債幾乎是“無風險投資”。在美債收益率持續攀升的情況下，將會對我們造成什麼影響呢？
1，股票中低於美債收益率的股票將會被資金遺棄，股票屬於風險投資，如收益不及接近無風險投資的美債收益，聰明的資金自然會選擇去處。
2，美國十年期國債收益率常被視作全球借貸成本的標的，美債收益率的攀升，釋放出借貸成本上升的信號，對於有負債嚴重的企業來說更是一大打擊。
3，正式宣告脫離低利率政策，美債利率的攀升將會對無息資產進行嚴重的打擊，如貴金屬、大宗商品等需要通過價格波動才能獲得利潤的資產。
本人認為，美債收益率的上升將會淘汰一系列收益率低的資產，如股市中創收能力低的公司、無息資產等。美債上升也會影響到新興經濟體發展，新興市場資金將會有較大一部分資金流向美債。
從目前外匯市場上來看，美元一家獨秀，證明資金依然在不斷兌換美元購買美債。短期內，美債的收益率有可能會受到壓制（收益率上漲代表債券市場供過於求，收益率下跌代表債券市場供不及求）。
對於貴金屬市場來說，美債接近“無風險”的資產相對於無息資產的貴金屬來說具備更大的吸引力，目前現貨黃金價格已經跌破重要支撐1300大關，後市仍然有繼續受壓的可能性較大。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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