熊傲君：美元能量爆棚，金價何去何從？
2018.04.27黃金策略
昨日回顧：金價昨日果真出現大行情，不過並不是沖高反彈，而是受壓維持弱勢，在此前金價曾經測試1318壹線支撐，不過隨後呈現虛破反彈，昨日早間金價在1322壹線徘徊，隨後多次在1320上方站穩反彈，但始終無法突破1326-1327的強勁反壓，歐盤也無法突破反而在尾段破低走弱，導致美盤繼續呈現弱勢的現象，並壹舉突破1320支撐，最低下探至1315趨勢線的位置，走勢已經十分低迷，現階段價格維持在1316附近，仍有進壹步回落的風險。
消息面：昨日有較為重磅的消息數據，首先是歐央行的利率決議以及德拉基的新聞發布會，歐洲央行公布利率決議，決定維持利率不變，因有跡象顯示歐元區經濟增長前景或許放緩，符合市場預期。歐洲央行行長德拉基表示，歐元區經濟的“潛在力量”繼續支撐歐洲央行的信心，盡管最近數周經濟出現“溫和”跡象。他補充表示，未來數月仍需要“充分的貨幣刺激”。昨日耐用品訂單數據以及初請失業金數據非常強大，皆大幅利空黃金，晚間還有眾多重磅的數據消息等待市場關註。
今日展望：金價再度破低，短期再次往下測試的可能性已經是非常大了，不過後市觀點依舊不變，我們把預期時間調整壹下，五月初回調結束後可以繼續看多，後市目前依舊不變，時間延後即可。短線上例如日內，繼續觀察歐盤強弱定奪，由於昨日下破前低，按理來講今日還是會偏弱壹些，不過現在也很多指標接近臨界點，晚間也有重磅數據，所以預估晚間若出現大跌後，會有馬上的反彈修正以結束周線的收盤，所以今日的看法大概是探底回升，這個底在哪裏要關註好時間節奏的變化。
從現貨黃金4小時圖看：金價目前維持下跌趨勢，破低延續的局面，這算是比較明顯的短期下行趨勢了，所以從順勢交易的原則上應當先繼續保持，再去考慮下方空間的支撐，日間註意上方1318-1320的頂底轉換處，若繼續承壓午後將進壹步下探，晚間或有望至1310壹線甚至更低，所以今日要接多只能等到美盤後段或歐盤直接走強破亞盤高點，否則要等下周到位的狀況。
操作建議： 1300上方的位置仍是長線多單的入手機會，今年目標依舊是1400上方，輕倉執行持有即可。短線今天建議關註1318-1320反壓，昨日破位，此處是日內多空分水嶺，若守住日內還有下行空間。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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