熊傲君：加息之際，市場表現謹慎
2018.03.15黃金策略
昨日回顧：昨日金價波動依舊有限，零售銷售資料影響作用也不大，儘管前期有了一小波拉漲，但是並未突破1330，總體只是上移了一個震盪區間，由前期的1315-1325上移至1320-1330區間震盪，目前方向依舊仍未決出，相信目前市場正是在等待下周的美聯儲利率決議，因此不敢異動，最近資料依舊偏空壓制，但是金價反應甚少，反而有築底的反應，早間金價小幅波動，除非歐盤出現異動，否則恐防晚間波動仍難突破震盪區間，屆時操作需較為謹慎。
消息面：昨日有恐怖資料之稱的零售銷售資料表現不佳，不及預期，但市場反應仍舊不大，雖比上個月有所提升，但仍未達到市場的心理預期。歐洲央行行長德拉基繼續釋放鴿派措辭，打壓了對手貨幣歐元走軟，令美指暫時見底，此後，新任宮首席經濟顧問庫德洛也首度發佈了政見，表示將力挺“強勢美元”，令市場情緒為之一振。晚間將迎來初請失業金人數資料，但預計影響有限，初請一直保持良好，市場已無太大期待。
今日展望：由於目前走勢仍然非常平淡，區間圍繞1320-1330，因此操作也是急不來，只能高拋低吸對待，若過於激進進場反而容易導致無謂的掃單，此階段有兩種做法，一是繼續區間做法，二是等待區間破位再順勢跟進，當然相等下周加息後再行入場也是可以的，今日的波動預料仍然不會太大，目前更像是加息前的靜局或是加息前的盤底，待利空散盡後，多頭才有望繼續攀升，這一點我們可以重點留意。
從現貨黃金1小時圖看：金價仍陷入震盪走勢，不過低點是有所攀升的，下方亦形成了有效的上升趨勢線，儘管波動不大，但走勢亦算是震盪上行走勢，現階段均線組表現仍舊糾結，沒有明確方向，下方MACD指標在0軸附近波動，因此短期操作上宜以震盪思路對待，長線操作仍舊可以嘗試逢低吸納。
操作建議： 1300-1320長線多單堅定持有，今年目標依舊是1400上方，加息前若有回檔依舊可以進場。短線關注1320-1330區間，歐盤強弱做日內節奏，或破位進行順勢跟進。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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