王垣鑫:元旦新年假期前夕,黃金寬幅震盪爭奪1800
本周金價寬幅震盪於1790-1820區間內,多空雙方仍有爭奪1800整數關口的跡象。昨日金價雖然在亞盤時段於1805附近出現較大幅度回落,但歐盤開盤後價格回踩1796後持續反彈並突破亞盤高點壓力位置,截至目前為止最高一度觸及1819一線位置,未能有效突破前高1820一線的壓制。
多方因素利好推動美元
多種支撐因素的組合説明美元兌日元延續了本月初以來的上行趨勢,並在週四上半段交易中獲得牽引力。金融市場的風險情緒繼續打壓避險日元,並推動美元兌日元對走強。奧密克戎新冠病毒變體傳播的影響仍在繼續,第三天全球報告的病例超過100萬例。昨天,世界各地報告了161萬例新病例。然而,有跡象表明,Omicron變種可能沒有人們擔心的那麼嚴重,由此引發的樂觀情緒幫助抵消了人們對新冠肺炎病例持續激增的經濟影響的擔憂。並提振了投資者對高風險資產的胃口,從最近股市牛市的延續可以明顯看出這一點。
美國國債收益率攀升
美國長期國債收益率周中攀升,此前財政部標售560億美元七年期公債,需求疲軟,儘管奧密克戎變種迅速蔓延,但風險情緒依然強勁。此輪七年期國債標售的得標利率為1.48%,比標售前二級市場的水準高出約2個基點。財政部週一標售的560億美元兩年期公債和週二標售的570億美元五年期公債需求也疲軟。本周的標售受流動性不佳影響,許多交易員和投資者在耶誕節和新年假期之間離場。投資者對明年公債收益率將上升保持警惕,預計美聯儲最早將於5月開始加息。
在周中金價大幅度會落後,昨日基本以震盪反彈走勢為主,目前日線MACD指標雙線繼續維持金叉向上運行,價格亦再度站上日線MA5均線上方。不過由於均線的支撐效果仍未得到確認,加上前高1820一線位置仍未取得突破,後市多頭是否能順利延續仍是未知數,所以短時間內可以先留意日線MA5均線的支撐有效性。
本文來源: 大田環球貴金屬
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