王垣鑫：耶倫引發市場大幅波動，加息言論腰斬金價漲勢
本周金價開盤後反彈勢頭較為強勁，雖然價格連續突破1780、1790兩道關鍵反壓位置，但上方的1800整數關口價格兩度上攻仍未能成功取得突破。加上耶倫加息言論的影響，金價多頭在高位遭腰斬，目前價格重新回落至1770-1780區間內，且高位回落勢頭仍未有明顯的放緩跡象。
加息言論腰斬金價漲勢
耶倫在《大西洋月刊》主辦的一個經濟論壇上表示:“利率可能會有所上升，以確保我們的經濟不會過熱。儘管這些額外支出相對於經濟規模來說相對較小，但可能會導致利率上調一點點。美國的經濟需要這些投資來保持競爭力和生產力，我認為美國經濟將因為他們而增長得更快。” 耶倫加息言論引發金融市場大幅波動，美元指數得到支撐，美股盤中高位跳水，貴金屬由升轉跌，國際油價延續上揚態勢。不過，之後耶倫又澄清稱，她並非干預美聯儲行動，不是預測也不是建議，她尊重美聯儲的獨立性。
2021美國GDP預計增長
美國達拉斯聯儲主席卡普蘭：預計2021年美國GDP將增長約6.5%。落在美國人身上的新冠肺炎疫情負擔不均衡。全球利率下降時因為全球經濟增長前景下降。經濟增長變得樂觀帶來的利率提高可能是好事。應當意識到低利率對資產價格的影響。擔心過度冒險。預計通脹將升高，而在年底時將緩和在2.25%附近，美聯儲的使命仍是將通脹預期錨定在2%。
從現貨黃金日線圖看，在四月份中下旬金價上攻1800未果後，近日金價再度測試1800關口依然失敗，MACD指標雙線有進一步延續死叉過程的跡象，若後市價格進一步延續高位回落走勢，有構成雙頂看空形態的風險，下方重點留意1755-1760區間的支撐效果。
再看看四小時圖，昨日晚間金價短時間內沖高回落，再度確認1800整數關口的壓力效果。目前MACD指標雙線重新開始死叉過程，配合KDJ指標的三線死叉信號，短時間內留意1780-1782區間的反壓情況，若壓力生效配合指標信號或暗示後市仍有進一步延續回落走勢。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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