王垣鑫：整數關口抵抗異常激烈，後市關注頭肩頂形態
金價自前段時間回踩1480美元/盎司一線後持續反彈，本周初更是一度站上周線ma5壓力均線上方，據大田環球貴金屬現貨黃金盤面報價顯示，截止目前本周最高價位為1535.5美元/盎司，高出周線均線壓力近28美元，但隨後特朗普彈劾下臺所引發的避險情緒有所降溫，加之美元指數持續走高，美聯儲官員態度有所轉硬，金價一晚間大幅下挫重回1500美元/盎司整數關口爭奪，目前正交投於1500-1510震盪區間內。
年內降息成謎助推美元走強
自上一季度美元指數一輪下滑後直至目前一直維持在震盪上揚的過程當中，雖目前整體上揚的速度與幅度較上一年年初低位反彈開啟時大幅放緩，但整體趨勢依然強勁，年內剩餘時間美聯儲降息計畫或已結束的預期更是給美元指數的走強狠狠助推了一把，經濟方面美國商業投資收縮幅度大於此前第二季度的估計，企業利潤增長不溫不火，給經濟蒙上了一層陰影，金融市場對衰退的擔憂正在籠罩著經濟。疲弱的企業支出和不溫不火的利潤增長可能會讓人懷疑消費者是否有能力繼續推動經濟增長。美國上半年經濟增速為2.6%。
隨著美國稅改和政府大舉支出影響的消退，美國經濟在很大程度上正失去動能，經濟學家預計美國今年經濟增速為2.5%左右，低於特朗普政府3%的目標。投資者關注點從彈劾調查轉向長期前景，人們需要回到基本面，但基本面並不利於繼續推動美元走高，進而也會限制金價進一步走低。
多空聚焦1500整數關口
現貨黃金方面雖然短時間內仍在1500整數關口附近爭奪，但從大級別上來看，整體頭肩頂形態的雛形已經出現，目前正處於右肩位置，若後市金價進一步承壓並跌破1480美元/盎司一線位置，將跌破頭肩頂形態頸線，後市或將進一步往1400-1430區間回落。短時間內先關注1500-1510區間突破情況，雖短時間內受避險情緒降溫影響，金價有所回落但1500整數關口支撐效果強勁，有機會支撐價格結束周線級別回調過程並重新打開新一輪上行走勢。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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